Mystic Gemini's BigBrother POV
Now that we know pretty much everything we're going to know before the finale, it's time for the annual mybbpov jury analysis. With Rachel and Porsche going against each other in Part III of the final HOH comp, and having a deal to take each other to F2, the most likely scenario is the two of them at the end. There's always a chance that one of them will break the deal, and if I had to guess I'd say odds were slightly better of Rachel being the one to break it. Adam has started to make his subtle pitch to each girl, but he's not the best campaigner, so even where he's got a point, he may not be able to make it well enough to convince anyone. Anyway, here are my thoughts on how the jury will vote; predictions in bold are the ones I'm more confident about. As always, the screencaps are from week 1.
If Rachel is in the F2, Brendon will clearly vote for her, not just because of their relationship, but because he honestly feels she played the best game. Brendon is a big believer in the value of comp wins, and in having to fight for your place in the game. He also places a lot of value on loyalty, making honest alliances and staying true to them (even if he didn't always do that himself this summer). If it comes down to a choice between Adam and Porsche, there are a lot of things in Porsche's favor to get Brendon's vote. They were in an early alliance, and she did vote to keep him in the game when everyone else other than Rachel abandoned him, and when her vote didn't count for anything other than supporting her alliance. She also won a lot more comps than Adam and fought to keep herself in the game. Adam was never aligned with Brendon, and is arguably single-handedly responsible for Brendon's second eviction. On the other hand if the F2 is Porsche/Adam, it's because Porsche won the Final HOH and kicked Rachel. Brendon could hold that against her both personally and strategy-wise. If it weren't for the deal with Rachel, I think Brendon would vote for Porsche in a Porsche vs. Adam F2 scenario. But with the deal, and with the betrayal being so fresh, in this reality I think he'll vote for Adam.
The thing about Daniele is that she is a true BB fan. She was a fan before she was on the show the first time, and she has remained a fan as a former HG. She came back for redemption, to try to win and change her reputation for being carried by her father through BB8. I never thought she was carried; I always said Dick and Daniele won season 8 together. They both played well, won comps and had a good strategy. Despite their issues, they had an alliance that wasn't going to break, and part of why people voted for the Tool to help D&D was that, twisted as it might be, viewers wanted to see their personal drama play out out TV. And while that may seem to be neither here nor there when it comes to the jury vote, it's where Dani is coming from. I think if Porsche is in the F2, Dani will vote for her, and not just for personal reasons. Dani does value competitive strength, and Porsche has shown that at the end. In the early weeks of the game, Porsche had no opportunity to win comps, sitting on the sidelines with the Golden Key, but no one understands that better than Daniele, who was sitting right next to her. And this second time around, Dani has learned to appreciate the social game more and will see Porsche's as being superior to Rachel's. But if it comes down to Rachel vs. Adam, she'll vote for Rachel. Rachel's belief that Dani will only vote for personal reasons is just wrong. Having been through this all before, Daniele knows that how you feel about someone inside the house isn't necessarily how you're going to feel outside the house. More importantly, she values the integrity of the game too much to vote for personal reasons. Even if it pains her, she'll vote for whomever she thinks played the better game.
The chances of Jeff voting for Porsche in the end are so close to zero that BB shouldn't even bother giving him a key with her name on it at the finale. This is in large part personal, but it is somewhat game related as well. Jeff values comp wins in BB, but not to the absolute degree that some of the other re-runs do. Twice now he's seen Jordan stay in the game longer than him, and once to the end. And he doesn't think she just got lucky there, he actually sees the value of social game. More importantly, Jeff believes in picking a side and staying loyal to it and Rachel did that. Or rather, she was a side. Adam also pretty much stayed with his alliance, and admits it was a mistake the one time he didn't. I think Jeff will also give some weight to the fact that Adam voted for Jeff to stay, not to mention he'll feel a little guilty for doubting him. If it's Rachel vs. Adam in the end, a lot of Jeff's vote comes down to how much Jordan can persuade him. Jordan promised Rachel they'd both vote for her, but I can see Jeff deciding to vote for Adam because they did have a stronger alliance. On the other hand, I don't think Jeff has any idea that Brenchel were so close to turning on him, and his loyalty to the original re-run alliance would probably be stronger in the end.
Shelly's the hardest juror for me to make a call on. She said several times that under no circumstances would she vote for Rachel to win, but she wasn't a big fan of Porsche's either for a long time. In her last weeks in the game she was in the newbie alliance and did seem to make amends with Porsche, writing off the things she originally didn't like about her to immaturity more than anything else. But she seemed to disapprove of Rachel's behavior to an extent she was less likely to get over. There's always a question about how much she will be influenced by the jury, and by which side of the jury. When it comes to criteria, Shelly's not going to be one to put the emphasis on comp wins. She'll respect that they've all won things, but it won't be a deciding factor for her. It's also hard for Shelly to take loyalty into consideration, given her own gameplay. She might well look at overall social game, and in that arena I think Adam wins of these three. But whether or not Shelly sees it that way is anyone's guess. And in the end, I don't think Shelly walked out of the house with a whole lot of respect for Adam's game, and there's not going to be a lot of pro-Adam argument in the jury discussions.
Likely votes: (I really think all of Shelly's votes are 50/50, but if I had to guess, I'd go with these)
Just as Kalia has played Dani's game, her vote will likely be Dani's vote. The alliance with Porsche and the actual respect for her game means that Porsche's got Kalia's vote no matter what. If it's Adam/Rachel in the F2, Kalia's vote for Rachel is even more locked up than Dani's. Not only does Kalia put a lot of stock in comp wins, by the time she left the house she was beyond bitter at Adam, seeing him as the ultimate floater and believing he had betrayed their newbie alliance. Even if she becomes convinced in the jury house that the alliance was never legit, she's still going to be angry. In that case, sure, he didn't break the alliance....instead he lied about it.
The chances of Jordan voting for Porsche in the end are even slimmer than the chances of Jeff voting for her, and that's saying something. I do think if Rachel's at the end, Jordan will vote for her. Both their alliance and friendship in the last few weeks were very sincere. And Jordan knows that she got as far as she did because of Rachel. Even though Jordan's not necessarily about the comp wins, when it comes to Rachel vs. Adam, she's going to give Rachel that credit. However she can easily justify not voting for Porsche despite her comp wins by giving Adam credit for his social game.
Initially after losing Part II, Adam was saying that if he goes to jury he will most likely vote for whomever won part 3 of the comp and kicked him. I tended to believe him, especially if it's Rachel. He has said repeatedly throughout the season that in the end, he will vote for the person who earns their spot in the F2. Rachel has been campaigning to him practically non-stop to emphasize everything she's done to earn her spot, and I think he agrees. So while there's a slight chance that he'll vote for Porsche if she wins part 3, I think his most likely honest vote is for Rachel. But then after having some time to reflect and probably some DR prodding, Adam has come up with his "master plan" to tell each of them he'll vote for the other if she kicks him. He's also saying that if he's in F2 he'll tell the jury to vote for the other person, since he didn't "earn" his spot. As of this writing, he's only said this to Porsche, and it's only succeeded in pissing her off. She correctly tells him that no matter what he says, the jury is going to vote how they want. Of course, it's not at all certain that he'd say that anyway. I sort of suspect this is all just his hail Mary to get to the F2, and when it comes time to cast his vote, he's going to vote for the one he thinks played a better overall game, and I do believe in his view that's Rachel.
With Porsche and Rachel, if one ends up in the jury it means the other one broke their deal. And since the last juror has no time to get over something like that there's a good chance that either would vote for Adam in the end. If it weren't for the deal, Rachel's reasoning in a Porsche vs. Adam F2 would be similar to Brendon's and I think she would end up voting for Porsche. With Porsche as the juror, she's been all about a newbie winning most of the game, but at the same time she's had a strong alliance with Rachel. She also seems to put more stock in comp wins. I think both Rachel and Porsche as jurors would be 50/50 on the surface, and the deal-breaking would be the deal-breaker that would push either of them to vote for Adam. This is all the more reason for Porsche to stick with Rachel. Even if she does lose Adam's vote by choosing Rachel, choosing Adam would likely lose her both Rachel's and Brendon's votes. For Rachel on the other hand, it would be a wash. And would probably gain her at least Kalia's vote.
So in my estimation, scenario 1 is the hardest to call, but Rachel probably wins 4-3. In scenario 2 I think Rachel is sure to win, probably on a 6-1 vote. But in scenario 3 I think Adam wins 5-2. I've never been totally right in my predictions, and what did me in last year was Rachel and Brendon voting for the stronger social player after a summer of saying comps were more important. That's why I was interested to hear them say this summer that they intentionally made it a 3-3 vote from the first 6 jurors, so the 7 juror would be the deciding vote, making for better TV (which I did note last year that it was more dramatic that way).
At the end of the day, I do want to see Rachel win. She's played the best game of the Final 3, and her points that she was in power or in jeopardy every week are well taken. As I've said before, if you'd told me at the beginning of the season that I'd end up rooting for Rachel to win, I would have told you that you were crazy. But she's played a great game, and she's been a much more likeable person this year, at least since Brendon left for good. I would rather see Adam in the F2 with her in part because it guarantees her the win, and in part because I'd much rather see him walk away with the $50K than Porsche. Though Porsche's played an okay game, her attitude bothers me and I don't like seeing it rewarded. The funny thing is that before walking out of the house Jordan told Rachel everything she needs to know to win the game at the end. She told her to win the endurance comp, win part 3 and take Adam to the end. And she told her to spend all her spare time the last few days thinking about how the jury would vote so she would know whom she could beat. This is how Jordan won BB11. The question is did Rachel listen? The other question is does she understand the jury well enough, and have enough confidence in herself to correctly predict how they'll vote?
We'll know when we know.
