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no one deserves to win

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posted Tuesday, 17 September 2013

I always say that no one deserves to win a reality show. It's just not something that one can "deserve." But it's really kind of like everyone's special, so no one's special. Just as you can say no one deserves to win, everyone deserves to be where they are. However the final 3 played the game, it worked out and got them there. And as much as the fans can talk about who we think should win, and how we think the jurors should vote, the fact is that the game is set up in such a way that they get to vote however they want.

I've been kind of over this season for a long time, and this final 3 is really hard for me to support in any way. I have zero use for Spencer. He has repeatedly offended me both personally and from a game standpoint. He did basically nothing in the game, had no strategy other than being not worth voting out. And in a final threesome that has taken repulsive comments to a new level, he is the worst in my book. I think Andy's played the best game of the 3, but he's been a major floater, and that's not my favorite strategy. His offensive comments have perhaps been a little less offensive than the rest, but his eagerness to turn around at talk trash about people who were previously his BFFs is just ridiculous. GM's played the least floater-y game, and her comp play has been decent, but she's basically had no strategy at all. She's pretty much just stumbled into her game. She's said unforgivable things, but she's also made me laugh. As I've been saying, she needs the money the most. For a train-wreck of season, it seems appropriate to have a train-wreck of a winner.

It's interesting to note in a season that was so full of prejudice and discrimination that 2 of the 3 possible winners would be "firsts." If Andy wins he'll be the first gay winner, and if GM wins she'll be the first woman to beat a man in the finals. GM could also be the first winner who was also the first through the door on the first night (how's that for an obscure statistic?).

Whether anyone deserves to win or not, someone will, in fact, win. While I'd love to hope for another first from this year - a totally accurate jury prediction from me - I'm not optimistic. I think this year's jury will vote more personally than anything else, and that's the hardest to predict. But, hey, I'll give it a go.

Scenarios:

1. Andy vs. GM

2. Andy vs. Spencer

3. GM vs. Spencer

Juror #1: Candice

Candice wouldn't vote for GM if she was paid to do so. She was never terribly close to Andy, and she was in something of an alliance with Spencer, their fight notwithstanding. She's also been gone from the game for like, forever. She's been hearing everyone coming into the jury house talking about Andy backstabbing them, and being who she is, I think she'll see that as a negative.
My Predictions

1. Andy

2. Spencer

3. Spencer

Juror #2: Jessie

Jessie's the hardest juror for me to predict. She's been out of the game for a long time, and from what we saw, she has the attention span of a teenager. She didn't leave the house with any particular bitterness towards any of the final 3, but she's likely to have been influenced by the other jurors. The real question is who will have the most influence.
My Predictions

1. GM

2. Andy

3. GM

Juror #3: Helen

Helen totally respects the way Andy has played the game, and will pretty much surely vote for him if he's in the final 2. If it's Spencer vs. GM, I think she'll go with GM, but I wouldn't swear to it.
My Predictions:

1. Andy

2. Andy

3. GM

 

Juror #4: Aaryn

Much has been made in the house of the fact that Aaryn and GM were "friends" and in campaign mode, Spencer, Andy and even GM are sort of assuming Aaryn will vote GM in the end for that reason. I'm not so sure that's automatically the case, because the fact is that Aaryn is a BB fan and respects good gameplay. All other things being equal, I think she'd actually vote for Andy. But given that Andy did totally betray her, and that I think she more than anyone else on the jury will see that GM did have some gameplay, I think she'll end up voting GM. Spencer probably has no shot at her vote, since I don't think she'll see anything he has done as worth voting for.
My Predictions:

1. GM

2. Andy

3. GM

 

Juror #5: Amanda

To Amanda, loyalty is key. Though she was aligned with Andy for the entire game, in the end he back-stabbed both her and McCrae and I think that loses Amanda's vote. When it comes to Spencer vs. GM, loyalty will still be a factor. Though GM was the one directly responsible for booting Amanda, it wasn't through any sort of betrayal. Spencer on the other hand was supposed to be "good" with her, but in fact was working against her.
My Predictions

1. GM

2. Spencer

3. GM

Juror #6: Elissa

Elissa's made it pretty clear that she's totally TeamGM. I honestly think a part of this is that Elissa wants a woman to win. But the fact that Andy shanked her is another big part of it. If it weren't for that Elissa would probably be TeamAndy, respecting his gameplay. She has no particular use for Spencer, so I think if it's him vs. Andy, Andy gets Elissa's vote.
My Predictions:

1. GM

2. Andy

3. GM

 

Juror #7: Judd

If Judd's parting message holds, he'll vote for GM at the end given the chance. A lot of people missed it, but Judd and GM actually had a little alliance all the way through the game. He was keeping her close, probably planning to bring her to the end, where he'd hopefully be able to beat her. She never did turn on him. Judd was also aligned with both Spencer and Andy since early on. Andy clearly shanked him several times, and I think that's ultimately going to cost him Judd's vote. Spencer also went against Judd when forced to choose, but it wasn't quite as harsh as what Andy did.

My Predictions:

1. GM

2. Spencer

3. GM

 

Juror #8: McCrae

Of all the jurors, McCrae is the least likely to vote "bitter." Sure, he was mad at Andy when he walked out the door, but after a few days to get perspective, he'll probably realize that Andy was just playing the game that was best for him. McCrae may also realize that if he hadn't spent the entire summer in bed with Amanda, he could very well be in that position instead of Andy. I honestly don't know which he'd chose between Spencer and GM. Just for fun, I'm going to guess he'll vote for Spencer.
My Predictions:

1. Andy

2. Andy

3. Spencer

 

Juror #9: Booted Exterminator

If it's Spencer his vote probably depends a bit on who kicks him. All things being equal, I think he's more likely to vote for Andy. If GM boots him, I think that secures his vote for Andy since GM's promised to take him. Andy also promised to take him, but has been hedging a bit in the last few days.
My Prediction Andy
If it's GM, Andy will have just kicked her after promising to take her, and she's more loyal to Spencer anyway, so I think she'll vote for him.
My Prediction Spencer
If it's Andy, things are pretty equivalent to GM. She will have just gone back on their deal, and he's been aligned with Spencer since the beginning anyway.
My Prediction Spencer

 

Based on my guesses, it's a pretty close call whichever way it goes. I think that's because they've mostly floated to the end, and even where there was good gameplay, it was overshadowed by the repulsive behavior. Honestly, I'm just ready for it to all be over.

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