Mystic Gemini's BigBrother POV
Every season (except BB9) I've done an entry on my guesses on how the jury votes will go. I've never been quite right on the money, but it's kind of a fun thing to do in these boring last days. So here we go. And, as is traditional here, all screencaps are from week 1.
BB is complicating things for me by leaving the Final 2 up in the air until the finale. But that also gives me something else to guess about. As I've been saying, I'm fairly certain Hayden will choose Lane if Hayden wins Part III. If Lane wins, it's a bit of a toss up, but I figure Hayden's a bit more likely. And I think Hayden will probably win Part III. So, my guess on the final 2 pairings from most to least likely:
I think Hayden vs. Enzo is so unlikely I was considering not guessing on the votes for that scenario. But with the way my luck has been this season, if I don't cover that option it will be what we get. So, let's poll the jury...
Juror #1: Rachel
Rachel's a BB fan, and a big believer in winning comps defining a strong player. And though she wasn't terribly close with any of the F3 in the house, she was the least close to Lane. I'm not sure how the Bro-gade might affect her vote. Even when the alliance is revealed, I say she's still going to blame Matt the most for her eviction and the voting won't get personal.
Likely vote:
Juror #2: Kathy
I'm not convinced Kathy always knew what show she was on. If she was a big BB fan, she never let that show. She never won comps herself, so my guess is she doesn't think that's a deciding factor. On the other hand, if she didn't win comps b/c she couldn't she might have respect for those who can. But in the end I think she's the most likely to vote personally. Of the F3, she was closest to Hayden, but she might feel that Enzo "deserves" to win more because he made the biggest personal sacrifice to be there (being away from his baby daughter). Enzo has also told them that one reason he wants to win is to help pay for his father's leukemia treatments. On the one hand, that would appeal to Kathy's sympathies. But on the other hand, having learned of Matt's Big Lie, when she hears Enzo was the mastermind behind the Bro-gade, she might doubt the story.
Likely vote:
Juror #3: Matt
Matt is both the easiest and the most difficult juror to predict. He's such a SuperFan that I think he will absolutely vote for whomever he feels played the best overall game. The question is, from his point of view, who did play the best game? He won't discount the value of winning comps, but I think he'll put more weight on good strategy. He probably won't fault the Bro-gade for turning on him, and in fact, he might give his vote to whomever he believes was the most responsible for taking him out. On the surface that's Enzo, but if you look closely, it's Hayden.
Likely vote:
Juror #4: Brendon
The way the F2 choose to portray the Bro-gade might have an effect on Brendon's vote. If they admit that they totally turned on Matt, it allows some leeway to argue that their "side-alliance" with Brendon was something other than total exploitation of him. But if they try to maintain Matt as a Bro-gader, that completely destroys any standing they have with Brendon. Not only were they against him when they supposedly had an alliance, but they were totally lying to him when they were plotting to get Matt out. Interestingly, they weren't lying to him when they turned on Matt, but admitting that outright could hurt their standing with everyone else because it takes something away from their SuperStrong Alliance to have totally shanked a member in the middle of the game. With Brendon it would also be easy to cop out and say he'll just vote however Rachel does. I don't think he'll necessarily vote with Rachel just because it's how she's voting. However, she completely convinced him that the people who "fight" the most are playing the best game, so I think his vote will reflect that. Though I think there's a chance that when he realizes how completely snowed he was by Hayden and Enzo that he turns around and votes for Lane for playing the most honest game.
Likely vote:
Juror #5 Ragan
Like Matt Ragan's such a fan that he'll vote for the best player, not personally at all. But he has a rather different view of the game since he wasn't in on the Bro-gade. But despite not being part of it, he totally knew it was there. I think he'll put slightly less value on winning comps and is really looking for strong strategy. The other unique thing about Ragan is that as everyone else is saying what a sweet, innocent angel Hayden is, Ragan has been saying all along, not so much. And while Ragan doesn't necessarily care if a HG is an angel, he seems to feel that it's best to be upfront about where you stand. Ragan is also looking for those "big moves" and will probably give Enzo credit for most of the Bro-gade's moves. At the same time, he believes that Lane hasn't made a single big move, or even a mid-sized move, the whole game.
Likely vote:
Juror #6: Britney
I think there is a reasonable chance that Britney will vote for Lane if he's in the F2 just out of loyalty and friendship. But there's a small chance that she'll sit back and consider who really played the best game. Even doing that, Britney's the juror most likely to see value in Lane's gameplay. He managed to get to the end without ever really having to backstab anyone. Some might call that floating, but others might call it smart. Britney has also said that she felt the most betrayed by Hayden with the Bro-gade situation, but it's not at all clear how that effects her vote. While in the house she said that Enzo has played a flawless social game and would win because of it. But when it was clear she was being kicked, she did admit to Lane that she said that in part to get the others to see Enzo as a threat, and she doesn't really think he's unbeatable.
Likely vote:
Juror #7: Low Bro on the Totem Pole
I generally think the seventh juror will vote against whomever just kicked them. And especially with Lane and Hayden having a F2 deal and playing each other in Part III, if either goes to the jury I think he'll vote for Enzo to win. But if it's Enzo that's kicked, I think he'll vote for whomever he thinks played the best game. And I think for Enzo that will be Hayden, for the same reasons as everyone else.
Likely vote:
So by my guess, if it's Hayden vs. Lane, Hayden wins 6-1; if it's Enzo vs. Lane, Enzo wins 6-1 and Hayden vs. Enzo is pretty much a dead heat.
